Market Commentary

Updated on August 15, 2022 10:04:24 AM EDT

There is nothing scheduled today that we need to be concerned with. This morning's bond gains may be a result of a drop in crude oil, which would help ease inflationary pressures in the economy.

The rest of the week brings us the release of five pieces of monthly economic data that may influence mortgage rates plus a Treasury auction and the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting. One of those reports is considered to be extremely important to the markets.

Tomorrow has two reports scheduled, but neither are considered to be potential market movers. The first will be July's Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET that will give us an idea of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. It usually doesn't cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Tomorrow's release is expected to show a small decline in new home groundbreakings last month. The lower the number of starts, the better the news for the bond market, as it would hint at a weaker than expected new home portion of the housing sector.

August's Industrial Production data is set for 9:15 AM ET. This report is a measurement of manufacturing sector strength that tracks output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Market participants consider it to be moderately important, meaning it can influence mortgage rates if it shows a noticeable variation from forecasts. An increase of 0.3% from July's level of output is what market participants are expecting to see. A larger increase would be negative news for bonds and mortgage rates, while a weaker than expected figure would be considered favorable.

Overall, Wednesday is the most important day for rates due to the release of the highly important Retail Sales report and two afternoon events. The calmest may end up being Friday unless something unexpected happens. If still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets as they can get active at any time.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2022


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